When Does a Recession Become a Depression?
The NBER does not have a separate formula for identifying a depression and there is no clear dividing line between a recession and a depression. Instead, economists usually reserve the term “depression” for a truly severe and long-lasting period of economic decline. The Great Depression is the clearest example of the massive difference in magnitude between a recession—even a bad one like the Great Recession—and a depression.
The first downturn of the Great Depression lasted from August 1929 to March 1933. During those 43 harrowing months, GDP shrank by 30 percent—six times worse than the Great Recession—and the unemployment rate topped 25 percent. Economic conditions were so bad that prices fell 10 percent (deflation), banks failed and millions lost their homes.
Before that, the worst depression in U.S. history was the so-called “Long Depression” from 1873 to 1879. During that 65-month ordeal—more than three times longer than the Great Recession—the once-booming railroad industry ran out of funding, sending the unemployment rate as high as 14 percent.
There’s another difference between recessions and depressions. When the NBER calculates the length of a recession, it marks the end of the recession as the moment in which the economy reaches its lowest point (the “trough”) and starts to expand again. When most economists talk about a depression, they include the entire period from the initial shock until the economy returns to some semblance of normalcy.
Can the US Avoid Another Depression?
From 1960 to 2007, there were 122 recessions in 21 of the world’s most advanced economies, according to the International Monetary Fund. During that same time period, there were “only a handful” of economic contractions severe enough to qualify as a depression. The most recent depression struck Finland in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union—its largest trade partner. The Finnish GDP fell 14 percent and unemployment rose to almost 20 percent.
While the economic future is always uncertain, central banks like the Federal Reserve have learned important lessons from cataclysmic events like the Great Depression.
“We’ve learned a lot about using fiscal and monetary policy tools to support the economy in times of economic crisis,” says Wolla. “While not perfect, these tools were used effectively to limit the economic fallout during the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession.”